Weekly Analysis (4/12/2016)

Posted on Posted in Weekly Analysis

Hi Guys,

First week into December and last month of the year! This weeks post covers my view on Cable, EUR, Aussie & Kiwi.

Any questions, get in contact with me at  enigmaforex@hotmail.com or @Enigma_FX

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GBPUSD

> Resistance Areas: 1.281, 1.331, 1.366 & 1.40
> Support Areas: 1.20

The Pound continued its bullish momentum seen since the start of November. The short term trend line mentioned in last weeks post kept price above it. The beginning of the week saw some chop and it wasn’t until Thursday that we began to see the move upwards. Thursdays candlestick close in the form of a bearish pin bar (although bullish close) at the same levels of the recent highs in mid November which saw rejection previously. However Friday’s close saw a strong momentum candle.

Price has started to form a trend with a HH, HL and now a follow through and break to produce another HH. However we are approaching the key support, now resistance, level of 1.28 that could provide some reaction around.

gbp_tv_daily_04122016

Looking at the NinjaTrader charts, we can see that before the big momentum move up we had confluence signals on the daily and 4hr with the Pysch and LinReg OBV. After rejecting the short term trend line, the daily momentum and OBV printed bullish signals at the end of the previous week. We can see on the 4hr that the volume was gaining momentum up before the Psych momentum turned bullish as well. I had mentioned that we would have to see a break of 1.25 zone to confirm the move. On the 1st December we got the break and close above this level, meaning we could have entered long, it is current c. 190 pips above this level now.

gbp_nt_daily-4hr_04122016

Will be keeping an eye on the movement of this pair for any retracements, but will mainly keep an eye on the reaction up at 1.28 area.

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EURUSD

> Resistance Areas: 1.1456, 1.08 & 1.105
> Support Areas: 1.0521

The Euro has had a bit of a ranging week. Having dropped down to into the key 1.0521 support level has moved upwards away, however it hasn’t been a strong reaction, as seen from the bouncing of price seen throughout the week. The pair closed higher of the week, but has been hitting up against a longer term downwards channel trend line which we broke though a few weeks ago.

eur_tv_daily_04122016

Looking at the volume and momentum on the NinjaTrader charts, the daily has been bullish since Tuesday. However on the 4hr we didn’t see a confluence signal and a strong break above 1.066 level. In fact the OBV has been moving slowly downwards, and when the Psych turned bullish briefly the LinReg OBV has been bearish.

eur_nt_daily-4hr_04122016

I’m with the view that this will break down further. But will need to wait for daily signals and a strong break below the key 1.052 zone. But will keep an eye on the 4hr signals to line up with the bullish daily signals and a stronger break to the up side to identify a move to the upside.

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AUDUSD

> Resistance Areas: 0.76, 0.77 &0.79
> Support Areas: 0.74, 0.725 & 0.70

The Aussie had an interesting week, on the weekly charts we have printed a doji candlestick (although slightly bullish). Price moved up slightly at the start of the week but on Wednesday dropped over 100 pips, back down to that 0.74 support area. Thursday and Friday were then spent making up that lost ground, closing just past the weeks open.

aud_tv_daily_04122016

On NinjaTrader the daily Psych and LinReg OBV are still bullish, and even the OBV itself is moving up back to highs before the large decline a few weeks ago. On the 4hr chart we haven’t received a bearish signal even when price fell, breaking a short term upwards trend line. Although the Psych is bullish, the LinReg OBV has turned bearish, this could provide a good entry opportunity if the 4hr signals line up with the daily and move up past the 0.75 zone.

aud_nt_daily-4hr_04122016

I’m slightly more bullish biased with this pair at the moment, even though in the past month it has declined, the volume on the daily is still strongly to the upside. But like always, will keep an eye on this and read the signals and technical analysis for that potential move up.

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NZDUSD

> Resistance Areas: 0.77, 0.74 & 0.72
> Support Areas: 0.674 & 0.689

The NZD dollar has made ground this week, although had its ups and downs throughout. Wednesday’s price action saw price move up into the bottom of the broken channel upwards trend line and saw some rejection, although there was some movement downwards price ended back up towards this level by the end of the week. We could be forming a new Lower High in the longer term trend formation we are seeing.

nzd_tv_daily_04122016

On NinjaTrader the daily signals has been in confluence with the move up, both Psych and LinReg OBV being bullish, however it seems to lack the momentum of a strong move upwards. On the 4hr the LinReg has just turned bearish and although Psych is still bullish it has been ticking lower. A break of 0.716 with reconfirmed bullish signals on this time frame could signal further upside.

nzd_nt_daily-4hr_04122016

Although my feeling is that this pair wants to go lower, we could see some more upside movement first. Price coming back into the 0.716 level will be key to monitor.

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Disclaimer
Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.  
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