This weeks post covers my view on Cable, EUR, Aussie & Kiwi.
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The Pound started the week at the 1.306 level which was the bottom of the range price was in in July/August. Monday printed a indecision doji bar with an inside bar combination after Tuesdays candle printed, both fairly small bars. Wednesday’s bar, although seemed stronger still wasn’t able to close outside of the inside bar range, it wasn’t until Thursday that we saw some decisive movement with a strong move up into and breaking through the 1.322 resistance zone. Friday’s bar with poor NFP data continued this bullish movement, however was rejected at the top of the July/August range horizontal resistance at 1.336.
Price has been grinding up from lows at 1.287 and is creating a trend channel. Price could possibly move back down from this range resistance and into the resistance turned support zone of 1.322 which is also in the same area as the TL of the upwards channel, before we see another leg further North.
> Resistance Areas: 1.37, 1.40, 1.44 & 1.48
> Support Areas: 1.28 & 1.32
The Euro didn’t make any decisive movement in any direction, price on Monday opened around 1.118 and closed c. 1.115. Price pushed down on Tuesday below the level of 1.116 but pushed higher over the next few days. Friday with NFP news created a larger movement, first to test the 1.123 level before being rejected and closing bearish back below1.116.
After the previous weeks Friday close which was a large bearish momentum bar, it broke through the lower TL of the upwards trend channel as well as the 1.123 level. And now we have re-tested this level with another large bearish close I’m expecting further downside to follow.
> Resistance Areas: 1.146
> Support Areas: 1.08 & 1.106
The Aussie is another pair which opened and closed the week at similar levels. We saw price push down after the previous weeks strong break and close through the 0.76 support level and upwards TL. However Wednesday, Thursday and Friday’s action recouped these losses and closed to pretty much even for the week. What was interesting about Friday’s bar, although bullish, created a bearish pin bar with a long tailed wick off the 0.76 level and a longer term trend line.
Even with poor NFP data the Dollar weakened and Aussie strengthened, but still by the end of the day we saw this rejection that created a long tailed wick off 0.76.
Price over the past month has shown a lot of rejection from further upside movement and we saw the break the previous week and have now re-tested the key levels. Further downside predicted.
> Resistance Areas: 0.784 & 0.79
> Support Areas: 0.74, 0.725 & 0.76
Similar to the Aussie the Kiwi this past few weeks has been a break and then re-test of key TL’s and levels. The first three days of the week saw price move sideways, even though the previous Friday’s close printed a strong bearish candle off resistance and broke through an upwards TL, price was maintained above the 0.72 support level. Thursday broke out of the early week range to the upside, with Friday continuing this momentum. However like the Aussie price was rejected and once again it was around the 0.73 zone.
We have seen a lot of rejection wicks from this 0.73 area, broke below the upwards TL and have now retested and again have seen a rejection. Although this will likely result in some bearish movement, a close below 0.72 would be a greater confirmation.
> Resistance Areas: 0.742 & 0.72
> Support Areas: 0.674 & 0.689
Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.