This weeks post covers my view on Cable, EUR, Aussie & Kiwi.
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This week saw the pound make a few strong moves in comparison to the past week or so. Monday’s action was contained in the previous Friday candlestick, forming an inside bar pattern. Tuesday was the day that price managed to break out of the recent range with an explosive move upwards. However Wednesday’s action was a bit mute and failed to push into the highs of 1.3479.
With the BOE cutting interest rates on Thursday to 0.25% the Pound dropped right down to the bottom of the range. Price on Friday managed to break below this level (1.306) but in fact closed right on this level.
Although Friday’s bar was breaching the range lows, it printed a small bodied indecision bar. This 1.306 level is going to be key, and if there is a strong break, the low of 2016 will be in sight.
> Resistance Areas: 1.31, 1.37, 1.40, 1.44 & 1.48
> Support Areas: 1.28
After a quite Monday price continued to push higher on Tuesday, in line with the previous Friday’s strong break to the up side. Tuesday through to Friday however saw price put in three consecutive bearish closes, moving back down into the range between 1.095 & 1.117. Interestingly similar to GBP, Friday’s candlestick posted an indecision bar with long wicks either side of the candle body. The lower wick in fact bounced off the 1.106 support zone.
In the short term price has created a higher high after failing to break through the 1.095 and moved back down to print a possible higher low. However looking at the bigger picture, the recent high is a lower high in line with the current downwards trend from highs in May.
Any move back into the recent high of 1.122, I will be looking for price action (double top, pin bar, engulfing etc.) to get short in line with the longer term trend and with the indecision bar printing on Friday we could see this move back up. Alternatively if price manages to break down past the lows of Friday and through the 1.106 support then I will be looking for a strong break below the lows at 1.095.
> Resistance Areas: 1.146
> Support Areas: 1.08 & 1.106
Last week I mentioned I thought price would move back down into the upwards trend line. On Tuesday we did in fact see a touch of this trend line (and the 50EMA) with a fairly strong rejection of these dynamic levels. Price after this large move up seemed to calm down a bit and pushed slightly higher by the end of the week. Friday’s bar is interesting as it formed a bearish pin bar, off both a downwards trend line and horizontal resistance of 0.764 which happens to be a recent high.
As previously noted, we can see price tightening up in a longer term wedge pattern with the 0.764 zone the horizontal resistance and upwards trend line from the lows at 0.715. I am now looking for a breakout scenario, to the upside with a break of that 0.764 level possibly after another test of the upwards trend line, or a strong break through the trend line to the downside. This double top with bearish pin bar pattern currently printed will be interesting to watch whether it will provide a strong enough rejection to create a break to the downside, or whether buyers will keep knocking on that 0.764 resistance level and break through it to the upside.
> Resistance Areas: 0.784 & 0.79
> Support Areas: 0.74, 0.725 & 0.76
Although the Kiwi is in a long term up trend price seems to be trading within a wide range between 0.729 and 0.696. After a strong move (c.160 pips) on the previous Friday, price ended up moving lower for the week. The strong move was into the key 0.72 resistance level, but after a short above this level, the Kiwi found more sellers and moved back down to the upwards trend line.
Fridays candlestick formed a large bodied pin bar off the 0.72 level. I did mention that price could move back down into the upwards trend line and potentially see some rejection back higher, however with this pin bar off resistance, it may be harder to for price to move higher. However to move lower price will need to break though short term support at 0.711.
Right now I am going to be watching for any strong break, either to the downside below 0.711 or a move above, breaching the highs of this week at 0.725 area as well as a short term downwards trend line from 2016 highs.
> Resistance Areas: 0.742 & 0.72
> Support Areas: 0.674 & 0.689
Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.