This weeks post covers my view on Cable, EUR, Aussie, Kiwi and GBP/CHF.
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The Pound has continued to move sideways this week. Although it has closed slightly higher, it is still stuck within the smaller range of 1.33 and 1.305. Fridays candlestick saw price reject the 1.33 level and form a long rejection wick, so although price is up since the start of the week, we could see another move back into the range zone.
This is just a wait and watch pair for me. I feel it will break out soon, but will wait for price to tell me which way it wants to go.
> Resistance Areas: 1.31, 1.37, 1.40, 1.44 & 1.48
> Support Areas: 1.28
Unlike the GBP, the EUR has had a fairly strong week. Previously price had broken below, out of its wedge pattern and 1.10. However price failed to move below last Friday’s close, with Monday and Tuesdays price action being confined within this Friday’s bar range, creating an inside bar pattern. Although Tuesdays bar printed a bearish rejection pin bar, Wednesday saw price shoot up, back into the wedge pattern area. Thursday pushed higher still, but it was Friday which burst up, through the top trend line of the wedge pattern and straight through 1.113 horizontal resistance level.
Price has clearly shown us that it wants to move higher, we are currently at the highs which were created at the start of July, and now above the 50EMA. A short retrace down into the 1.113 level and bounce to continue higher would be a good opportunity to get long.
> Resistance Areas: 1.146
> Support Areas: 1.08 & 1.106
Until Wednesday when a huge indecision bar was printed, price seemed to hover around the 50EMA and upwards trend line for the first half of the week. Thursday again printed rejection of a move higher, however Friday saw a strong move up and more importantly a close. This close is right on the 0.76 resistance level, which has seen strong rejection from the previous two times price came up and hit the level. Unless we get a solid move up early on next week and a good close above the short term resistance 0.765 then we could see price once again be rejected.
However it is interesting to note that after each rejection price moved down less and less each time, creating the current upwards trend line and higher lows. Indicating that price wants to move higher. Its just the resistance level of 0.76 & 0.765 seem to keep finding sellers. But the more times price hits a level and less chance it is going to hold.
I am now bullish on this market but think we could see some tightening of price as we reach there resistance levels and trend lines.
> Resistance Areas: 0.784, 0.79 & 0.76
> Support Areas: 0.74 & 0.725
After a strong bearish week previously, price found a turning point from the 0.697 short term support. I had anticipated a bounce back up to the underside of the trend line that was broken and we did see price get rejected from this level for a few days mid week, even producing a bearish pin bar on Thursday. However on Friday the Kiwi put in a c. 160 pip move, shooting up back through the trend line it had broken the previous week and into the key resistance level of 0.72.
Similar to the Aussie it has closed at a key resistance level after a strong move, so I’m expecting a retracement before the move continues. But have to be weary of the resistance of the highs around 0.7298.
> Resistance Areas: 0.742 & 0.72
> Support Areas: 0.674 & 0.689
As I am going to Switzerland this week I thought I would review the GBPCHF rate. I am currently kicking myself that I didn’t buy any Francs about a month ago, as now I am getting a 1.28 exchange rate. At the end of last year it was reached 1.56, so in half a year the pound has weakened dramatically against the Franc.
Since BREXIT and similar to GBPUSD, this pair has been mainly moving sideways. For the past two weeks it has been contracting into a tight range, with lower highs being formed, with horizontal support at 1.29 holding up. On Friday however this support gave way and price finally broke down further.
If you look at the long term view, we are hovering around the lows that were created after the Swiss pulled it’s price peg at the start of 2015. With this small breakout, we could see price move back down towards these lows.
> Resistance Areas: 1.315
> Support Areas: 1.26
Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.