Weekly Analysis (24/04/2016) * Day Late *

Posted on Posted in Weekly Analysis

Hi Guys,

This weeks post covers my view on Cable, EUR, Aussie & Kiwi.

Any questions, get in contact with me at  enigmaforex@hotmail.com or @Enigma_FX

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GBPUSD

This week saw the pound move up towards the 1.44 level and a downwards trend line, with Monday posting strong gains and again on Tuesday. Tuesday’s price action saw price move into this 1.44 resistance level and for the next few days we consolidated around this level, with Thursdays bar posting a strong bearish engulfing pin bar off the key 1.44 level. However on Friday the market decided once again to move up and test it, and although breached the level, ended up closing pretty much on 1.44.

With price closing above the trend line and seemingly wanting to push above the 1.44 level, we could see price now continue to push higher, back into the resistance level of 1.46 and the highs of 2016.

GBPUSD_TV_Daily_24042016

> Resistance Areas: 1.510, 1.48, 1.46 & 1.44
> Support Areas: 1.40 & 1.366

Reviewing the Cable on the NinjaTrader platform, we can see that Order Flow is indecisive at the moment, currently not printing any signal. Psych momentum has turned bullish, still in an uptrend since the beginning of the year. OBV LinReg although above its 0 line has moved down slightly and now testing its mid-point. Similarly OBV itself ticking along sideways with price, in no clear direction.

GBPUSD_NT_Daily_24042016

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EURUSD

After the previous weeks drop from 1.14 resistance area, price this week moved back up into this level, before again coming into some resistance, with Tuesday and Wednesday’s bars showing upper wicks on the candlesticks, indicating a sell off from those levels. It was Thursdays candlestick that saw the most rejection, having opened below 1.14, the market moved back up into this level and was strongly rejected, creating a bearish engulfing pin bar in the process. Subsequently on Friday we saw further moves to the downside.

Because the 1.14/146 level has been such a resistance and rejection of price, it could be a while until we see another run at it. The pair is in a large upward trending channel at the moment, and with the recent rejection, we could see moves into the lower channel trend line and 1.11 support area before we move back up.

EURUSD_TV_Daily_24042016

> Resistance Areas: 1.146
> Support Areas: 1.08, 1.052 & 1.11

On NinjaTrader Order Flow has started to print a bullish signal. Psych Momentum is still bullish. OBV LinReg has broken above its mid-point. OBV has moved down slightly with price.

EURUSD_NT_Daily_24042016

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AUDUSD

Monday’s candlestick formed a large bullish engulfing bar of the previous Friday’s candlestick, breaking above the 0.77 level. Subsequently we saw further bullish movement on Tuesday, but like the Kiwi, price began to give back those gains on Wednesday, through to Friday with strong bearish candles with long wicks. The 0.76 level has been a key resistance to break and has performed as former support in the past for price, so now we are seeing some movement to the downside, a potential pullback to 0.76 and the upwards trend line could be a great place to get long. However this is quite far away at the moment, so will have to wait for price action to play out to see if it reaches this key area.

AUDUSD_TV_Daily_24042016

> Resistance Areas: 0.79
> Support Areas: 0.706, 0.695, 0.69, 0.725, 0.74 &0.76

Reviewing NinjaTrader, we can see that Order Flow is still bullish, along with Psych Momentum. OBV LinReg is above its 0 line and OBV has moved up along with price moving upwards.

AUDUSD_NT_Daily_24042016

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NZDUSD

The Kiwi saw a lot of movement this week, with large sized candlesticks on every day. Monday saw another push back above the 0.689 level, having closed just above it the previous Friday. This momentum was carried through to Tuesday where price reached up to 0.705. It was here that things started to reverse, with Wednesday, Thursday and Friday’s bars posting solid bearish movement, ending the week back down below 0.689.
 
This pair has been grinding its way higher in a channel since the start of the year and is still contained above the upwards trend line. With current bearish movement, we could see a move into this trend line channel before reaching higher. 0.689 still seems to be a key point for price at the moment, I thought if we saw a strong move above this level like we saw at the start of the week, it would produce more bullish movement, but as we have seen the bears took over for three straight days and have pushed price back down. For me I’m going to wait and see where this moves from here. Possibly down to the trend line after seeing a small test of 0.689 resistance. 

NZDUSD_TV_Daily_24042016

> Resistance Areas: 0.689
> Support Areas: 0.674-0.669, 0.65-0.645 & 0.624

Reviewing NinjaTrader, Order Flow has stopped printing its bullish signal, but has yet to print a bearish sign. Psych Momentum however has stayed bullish. OBV LinReg has fallen below its 0 line. OBV itself has moved up and then down along with price.

NZDUSD_NT_Daily_24042016

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Disclaimer
Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.  
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