Weekly Analysis (17/04/2016)

Posted on Posted in Weekly Analysis

Hi Guys,

This weeks post covers my view on Cable, EUR, Aussie & Kiwi.

Any questions, get in contact with me at  enigmaforex@hotmail.com or @Enigma_FX

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GBPUSD

This week the Cable pushed away from the 1.40 support zone after touching this level the previous week. Although on Wednesday and Thursday these gains were given back after hitting the 50 EMA. It ended the week not far up from where it opened on Monday and we are still within this forming wedge pattern created by the two trend lines from highs of 2016 and lows of 2016.

GBPUSD_TV_Daily_17042016

> Resistance Areas: 1.510, 1.48, 1.46 & 1.44
> Support Areas: 1.40 & 1.366

Reviewing the Cable on the NinjaTrader platform, we can see that Order Flow is indecisive at the moment, currently not printing any signal. Psych momentum is bearish, however has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the year. OBV LinReg although above its 0 line has moved down slightly. Similarly OBV itself has ticked down along with price.

GBPUSD_NT_Daily_17042016

It seems price is tightening up and I am just waiting for price to make a decisive move by either breaking the trend line to the up side and the 1.44 level or the downside around the trend line and 1.40 level.

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EURUSD

The previous week saw a lot of consolidation and the start of this week was no different, as price printed two bearish indecision candlesticks, with Tuesday’s bar engulfing Monday’s price action. On Wednesday price broke sharply out of this range and moved to the downside and past the short term 1.135 support area. Thursday and Friday’s movements again indicated more indecision in the market as both candlesticks produced indecision bars, even after the strong move downwards.

EURUSD_TV_Daily_17042016

> Resistance Areas: 1.146
> Support Areas: 1.08, 1.052 & 1.11

On NinjaTrader Order Flow has yet to print any signal. Psych Momentum is still bullish although ticked slightly down. OBV LinReg is also below its 0 line but testing its mid-point. OBV has moved down with price but has yet to breach the volume lows at the end of March.

EURUSD_NT_Daily_17042016

We are still in a major uptrend in this market, but have yet to break through the key resistance of 1.146 at which price had been consolidating the past few weeks. I am expecting more upside in the mid-term, with another test up to 1.146, but if we break 1.115, we could see price go back down to 1.11 in the short term.

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AUDUSD

After breaking up through key resistance of 0.76 price moved back down to close below it again. This week saw price make another attempt at breaking through and Tuesday movement produced a strong bullish move up and closed towards the highs of 2016 around 0.77. Price managed to push higher still towards the end of the week.

AUDUSD_TV_Daily_17042016

> Resistance Areas: 0.79
> Support Areas: 0.706, 0.695, 0.69, 0.725, 0.74 &0.76

Reviewing NinjaTrader, we can see that Order Flow is still bullish, along with Psych Momentum. OBV LinReg is above its 0 line and OBV has moved up along with price making new highs with price. And we can see that OBV has been moving up sine the end of December 2015.

AUDUSD_NT_Daily_17042016

Now price has broken up through 0.76 level, I’m anticipating further moves to the upside. The next key resistance above current price is up at 0.79 which was previous resistance this time last year. Any re-test back down to 0.76 would be a good opportunity to get long.

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NZDUSD

This week we saw the Kiwi start below 0.689 resistance, break above, move back below and then finished the week closing just above again. After shooting up and above 0.689, Wednesday’s saw price hit up against the trendline producing a small bearish doji candle, Thursday saw price drop dramatically back below the level. All these losses were made up pretty much from open to close which saw price back above 0.689.

NZDUSD_TV_Daily_17042016

> Resistance Areas: 0.689
> Support Areas: 0.674-0.669, 0.65-0.645 & 0.624

Reviewing NinjaTrader, Order Flow has stopped printing its bullish signal, but has yet to print a bearish sign. Psych Momentum however has stayed bullish. OBV LinReg has fallen below its 0 line. OBV itself has moved down, creating some divergence. From OBV highs at the start of March, price has continued to move higher, whereas OBV has been in a downtrend. Something to watch out for.

NZDUSD_NT_Daily_17042016

We seem to be in an uptrend identified by the trend line channel, but price seems to be tightening up, being held below 0.695. With the divergence with OBV, we could see more movement to the downside again. But if 0.689 holds and we break 0.695 this will confirm and open up further upside movement.

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Disclaimer
Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.  
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