Weekly Analysis

Weekly Analysis (27/03/2016)

Hi Guys,

Hope you’re having a good Easter Break.

This weeks post covers my view on Cable, EUR, Aussie & Kiwi.

Any questions, get in contact with me at  enigmaforex@hotmail.com or @Enigma_FX


After the previous weeks closing doji indecision bar on Friday, we saw Monday’s opening price gap lower. We almost moved up to cover the gap during the day but price fell back below the 1.44 level. This bearish momentum continued over the next few days, only stalling after price bounced off 1.4052 on Thursday. Friday saw very little movement due to the Easter bank holiday, and it created an inside bar formation to end the week.


> Resistance Areas: 1.510, 1.48,1.46 & 1.44
> Support Areas: 1.40 & 1.366

Reviewing the Cable on the NinjaTrader platform, Order Flow had finally printed a bullish signal, however it stopped mid-week. Psych Momentum which turned bullish last week has now reversed back below its 0 line to give a bearish sentiment. OBV LinReg however is still above its midpoint and OBV has been moving sideways but is up from the lows of 2016 in the end of Feb.


Having broken back through the key 1.44 and seeing a small rejection near the 1.40 support zone, we could see this pair begin to range bound between these two levels. We are still in a bearish movement viewing the long term action, and we have see the creation of LL’s and LH’s over the past few months, so will continue to monitor that pattern. 1.46 will be key for bullish bias if we move and break that zone and below 1.40 will be a stronger signal for bearish movement.


Although the EUR hasn’t moved very much this week in comparison to previous moves over the last few weeks a months, the pair posted bearish candlesticks every day. On the back of the previous week, price hit up against the 1.135 resistance zone and started to reverse, which continued into this week, creating a double top in price.

The EUR is in a large bullish trend channel, and as we have hit some resistance at the highs, we could expect the pair to move lower back into the key 1.11 and 1.10 areas, before continuing higher.


> Resistance Areas: 1.135 & 1.146
> Support Areas: 1.11, 1.08 & 1.052

On NinjaTrader, Order Flow has still yet to print any signal. Psych Momentum is still bullish and although has moved slightly lower with price, it is still in a longer term upwards movement. OBV LinReg has continued to move further below its midpoint. OBV itself has moved down, almost making new lows for 2016, something that is interesting as price is still high, yet OBV is pressured to the downside.


If we go to re-test the double top resistance area of 1.135 before breaking or testing the 1.11 it may be a good selling opportunity if there is favorable price action. Similarly if price moves back into 1.11/1.10 with ideal set ups it would be a good opportunity to get long.


The beginning of the week saw a struggle in price around the 0.76 resistance level. It wasn’t until Wednesday that we saw some decisive movement which was to the downside. Although price moved strongly downwards there seem to be some buyers in the market as Thursdays action saw price reach 0.747 area before retracing back up, sellers however seem to have the upper hand this week as Friday saw this retracement shrink slightly as we close the week on a bearish candle. Interesting to note that it created an inside bar formation.


> Resistance Areas: 0.76
> Support Areas: 0.69, 0.705, 0.725 & 0.74

Reviewing NinjaTrader, we can see that Order Flow has continued to print bullish, Psych Momentum is also bullish, although as slowed down. OBV LinReg has continued to stay above its 0 line and OBV has moved down slightly along with price, but seems to be in a range pattern over the last week or so.


I am still bullish and a re-test of 0.74 would be a good opportunity to get long, if price manages to move down that far.


After finding strong resistance up at the 0.689 zone, price has strongly bounced off it and dropped lower with bearish closing bars throughout the week. We dropped back down into the 0.674-0.669 area which has been has been such a battleground for price in 2016. This marks the second time over the last month that price has moved upwards above this level and then ended up not being able to hold itself and subsequently drop back down below.

Thursdays candlestick produced a doji indecision bar followed by Fridays action creating an inside bar formation, all at the 50 EMA and 0.669 level. This could mean we are looking at a stall in price before it moves further down or a slow down of the downwards movement and a signal for price being ready to move back higher??


> Resistance Areas: 0.689 & 0.674-0.669
> Support Areas: 0.658, 0.65-0.645, 0.624 & 0.674-0.669

Reviewing NinjaTrader, Order Flow continued to print bullish, Psych Momentum is still bullish. OBV LinReg is also still above it’s 0 line, although ticked slightly down. OBV itself has moved strongly to the downside, although in a longer term upwards trend.


I feel like this pair still wants to go higher, with the slow grind upwards and attempts to break above the 0.674-0.669 battleground. But with strong rejection from 0.689 we will likely see further movement lower before moving back higher. A move into 0.658 support will likely be a good opportunity to get long.

Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.