Weekly Analysis

Weekly Analysis (20/03/2016)

Hi Guys,

This weeks post covers my view on Cable, EUR, Aussie & Kiwi.

Any questions, get in contact with me at  enigmaforex@hotmail.com or @Enigma_FX


On Monday, the Cable dropped off after a close last week into resistance at 1.44. I mentioned last week that the previous weeks close could be a new lower higher in the move downwards, and by Tuesday this seemed the case, however Wednesday’s price action moved down to just above the 1.40 support area before switching direction and closing higher. It was then Thursday which saw the biggest move in this pair this week, price pushed strongly above the 1.44 zone and made a decent close above. On Friday we can see that a indecision doji bar has formed, hovering just above that 1.44 level.

With momentum seemingly on the upside we could see price push into the key 1.46 level which was a key swing point and the highest point has moved in 2016. Above we have the larger downtrend trend line and 1.48 resistance, if 1.46 gets cracked we could see price reach this high. Alternatively if price breaks and puts in a strong close below 1.44 this will provide a more bearish sentiment.


> Resistance Areas: 1.510, 1.48 & 1.46
> Support Areas: 1.44, 1.40 & 1.366

Reviewing the Cable on the NinjaTrader platform, Order Flow has stopped printing its bearish bias for the first time since highs in August 2015. Although it has yet to print bullish. We can see that Psych Momentum has also turned bullish after a period of time moving slowly upwards, the same can be said for OBV LinReg which has just broken through its 0 line. OBV has also been ticking higher, following price up. we can see that Order Flow is still printing bearish, the Psych momentum still bearish although has ticked up slightly in line with price. OBV LinReg although moving back up is still below its 0 line and OBV itself has also made moves higher following price recent moves.


With price taking out the key 1.44 level, 1.46 seems to be in its sights and with momentum on the upside this level will be key for this pairs direction in the next few weeks.


The EUR continued its strong run upwards this week. After Monday and Tuesday moved down slightly to test the 1.11 support area, price once again rocketed and put in large moves on Wednesday and Thursday. After hitting up into that high from 11th Feb 2016 at 1.135 area, price moved down slightly to end the week.


> Resistance Areas: 1.135 & 1.146
> Support Areas: 1.11, 1.08 & 1.052

On NinjaTrader, Order Flow has yet to print any signal. Psych Momentum is still bullish and has continued to move up. OBV LinReg is just below below. OBV itself has moved up slightly along with price, but what’s interesting to note its still below the level it was at on 11th Feb, and now price is back in this area OBV is yet to follow price that high.


Price seems content on moving up, but we are closing in on major resistance at 1.146 area that price has been beneath (apart from one spike in Aug 2015), so we will likely see some action around this area if we get that high. Price will first need to move above the current area its sat at of 1.135 before thoughts of 1.146 come into mind.


The beginning of the week saw some consolidation and a retest of the previous S/R level broken the previous week at the key 0.74. Once price hit this zone it continued to do its thing that has become familiar over the past few weeks and that is move upwards. We saw on Thursday price take out another resistance level at 0.759 with a strong close above it. However on Friday price dropped down a little and is currently testing this level but this time as support.

We have now entered an area where price ranged from the start of 2015 until early June when it broke through this 0.759 level to the downside, so if we can stay above we may see similar price action re-occur.


> Resistance Areas: 0.76
> Support Areas: 0.69, 0.705, 0.725, 0.74 & 0.759

Reviewing NinjaTrader, we can see that Order Flow has continued to print bullish, Psych Momentum is also bullish moving sharply up. OBV LinReg has continued to move above its 0 line and OBV has moved upwards but not as dramatically as price has.


With the momentum behind the moves higher, I have a bullish biased view at the moment, especially as we broke through the key 0.74, had a re-test and pushed higher still.


We saw the previous week that price did break out of the range that has occurred the past month or so, breaching and closing above 0.674, however this move wasn’t sustained and we this week start back within the range. By Tuesday price was again testing the 0.658 level forming the bottom of the range. This level has consistently forced price back up often with some momentum which was exactly what happened on Wednesday with an explosive move back up to the top of the range. Again we saw another large move break through the 0.674, but this time a much larger move. Friday saw some of this move eroded as price hit up against the key resistance zone at 0.689 (third bounce off this level) and closed around 0.678 area to finish the week.


> Resistance Areas: 0.689 & 0.674-0.669
> Support Areas: 0.658, 0.65-0.645, 0.624 & 0.674-0.669

Reviewing NinjaTrader, Order Flow has continued to print bullish, Psych Momentum is still bullish and has moved higher. OBV LinReg is also still above it’s 0 line. OBV itself has continued to rise with price and has done so since the lows in mid Feb.


Now we have had two breaks above 0.674 and a lot of support at the 0.658 I have a slightly bullish biased, although with strong resistance above at 0.689 I don’t want to be think this pair will continue to move upwards, especially as it’s had a struggle to reach where it is at the moment. If we see a break 0.689 however this will open it up for further moves up, with no key resistance until we get up at 0.72.

Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.