Weekly Analysis

Weekly Analysis (13/03/2016)

Hi Guys,

This weeks post covers my view on Cable, EUR, Aussie & Kiwi.

Any questions, get in contact with me at  enigmaforex@hotmail.com or @Enigma_FX


The Cable had another good week, with Mondays close pushing higher. Tuesday and Wednesday saw price stall a bit, likely on the anticipation of the ECB decision, this consolidation created an inside bar. Thursday saw price move down below this inside bar formation but reversed to create a bullish engulfing bar of the past three days price action. Subsequently Friday’s action saw price move up to the 1.44 resistance level.


> Resistance Areas: 1.510, 1.48, 1.46 & 1.44
> Support Areas: 1.40 & 1.366

Reviewing the Cable on the NinjaTrader platform, we can see that Order Flow is still printing bearish, the Psych momentum still bearish although has ticked up slightly in line with price. OBV LinReg although moving back up is still below its 0 line and OBV itself has also made moves higher following price recent moves.


Price is currently at the point of a LL and LH market structure formation, is up against the 50 EMA and has hit the 1.44 resistance level. With Friday’s candlestick forming a large bodied indecision candle. This current level will be key over the next few days, if we see a pop higher, we have resistance up at 1.48 which is a key swing point. If we break this then the bearish LL & LH market structure would be less significant. But confluence around the 1.44 area, price may continue the market structure and put in another LL.


The EUR had an interesting week. It began up against the key resistance of 1.10 the top of the long range we saw. Price then consolidated with no clear direction in anticipation of the ECB meeting on Thursday. Price then exploded after the announcement, first to the downside hitting key support at 1.08 and then completely reversed, rocketing up, smashing through 1.11, reaching 1.12. Friday’s action saw price move back down to the 1.11 level before reversing off the level, finishing the week slightly below the weeks high.


> Resistance Areas: 1.135 & 1.146
> Support Areas: 1.11, 1.08 & 1.052

On NinjaTrader Order Flow has yet to print any signal. Psych Momentum is still bullish and has been moving up since lows in Dec 2015. OBV LinReg is also below its 0 line with OBV following price up, but not hugely considering the volatile price movement on Thursday.


For now, I will likely be on the sidelines, to leave the markets to calm down a bit before making any decision on direction. We have resistance up at 1.135 and the more important resistance at 1.146 above to watch out for if the market decides to move further up. The support of 1.11 will also be important if we see another retest of this area.


The Aussie has continued it’s campaign upwards after the strong break above the 0.725 zone and then taking out the 0.74 zone as well. The open and closes for most of the week stayed within the 0.745 area with bullish and bearish closes, it wasn’t until Friday that price once again made a large move upwards where price bounced just off the 0.76 resistance zone to end the week.


> Resistance Areas: 0.76
> Support Areas: 0.706, 0.695, 0.69, 0.725 & 0.74

Reviewing NinjaTrader, we can see that Order Flow has continued to print bullish, Psych Momentum is also bullish after its large move above its mid point last week. OBV LinReg has continued to move above its 0 line and OBV has moved slightly sideways.


Last week I mentioned that the 0.74 could present a good area for retracements, and we did see some movement back towards the level before heading up to the 0.76 resistance zone. This pair has had a strong few weeks with very little strong retracement. We could see price once again test the 0.76 level and possibly move down to 0.74, this will be something I will be keeping an eye on.



The Kiwi has had an interesting week, with the shock move from the RBNZ cutting its rate by .25 to 2.25% on the Tuesday subsequently we saw price move strongly back down through the 0.674-0.669 zone. Thursday saw price stall at the 50 EMA and create a indecision bar, with Friday moving back into the 0.674-0.669 zone, closing pretty much on the top of that area at 0.674.


> Resistance Areas: 0.689 & 0.674-0.669
> Support Areas: 0.65-0.645 & 0.624

Reviewing NinjaTrader, Order Flow has started to print bullish, Psych Momentum has turned bullish, with OBV LinReg above it’s 0 line. OBV itself has risen with price and has done so since the lows in mid Feb.


As we are still underneath the 0.689 level, I still have a bearish sentiment on this market. I will be keeping an eye out for movement into the 0.68 area. If we break this we could see price move back up to 0.689. The 0.674-0.669 zone is becoming an important area that price seems to be attracted to and will be key in the coming few weeks so will be one to keep an eye on.

Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.