Weekly Analysis (6/03/2016)

Posted on Posted in Weekly Analysis

Hi Guys,

This weeks post covers my view on Cable, EUR, Aussie & Kiwi.

Any questions, get in contact with me at  enigmaforex@hotmail.com or @Enigma_FX

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GBPUSD

The Cable made some solid gains last week, having made 7 year lows the previous week we saw price close bullish every single day. It wasn’t until Wednesday that price broke back through the 1.40 key area and continued to move higher, also breaking through lows of Jan 2016 at 1.41 area.

Still in a major downtrend, price seems to be formulating a new LH – LL structure. If this is the case we could see price continue higher over the next few weeks and reach the resistance of 1.44 level. This would also be hitting up against the 61fib retracement level from highs in 4th Feb to low of 29th Feb.

GBPUSD_TV_Daily_07032016

> Resistance Areas: 1.510, 1.48, 1.46 & 1.44
> Support Areas: 1.40 & 1.366

Reviewing the Cable on the NinjaTrader platform, we can see that Order Flow is still printing bearish, the Psych momentum still bearish although has ticked up slightly in line with price. OBV LinReg although moving back up is still below its 0 line and OBV itself has also made moves higher following price recent moves.

GBPUSD_NT_Daily_07032016

I will be monitoring price to reach up to 1.44 as we have now passed the 1.40 and 1.41 re-test bounce opportunities.

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EURUSD

The EUR started the week with further moves lower, however on Tuesday and Wednesday we saw price action create two pin bar candlesticks off the key 1.08 support area, which has been crucial in containing price since the long range from Dec 2015 to Feb 2016. Subsequently price moved back up and although broke above the ranges high of 1.10 we haven’t seen a close above it as of yet.

EURUSD_TV_Daily_07032016

> Resistance Areas: 1.11 & 1.146
> Support Areas: 1.08 & 1.052

On NinjaTrader Order Flow has yet to print any signal after price came down from the 1.135 area. Psych Momentum is bullish and has been moving up since lows in Dec 2015. OBV LinReg is also below its 0 line with OBV following price back up.

EURUSD_NT_Daily_07032016

We could see another range period between 1.08 and 1.10/11 if we can’t break one of these levels soon. I would be favouring longs for this pair unless we break the 1.08 level.

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AUDUSD

This pair has had an explosive week. Having been contained between the 0.725 horizontal level and a rising trend line, price was tightening up, this week saw that tightening explode out to the upside. The pair started the week on the rising trend line as previous Friday’s price action saw a large bearish bar, but price moved up away from the trend line and on Wednesday we saw the huge move up through the 0.725 and make a convincing close above. Thursday and Friday continued this upwards momentum of price and close above 0.74 resistance level, one which price hasn’t been able to move through since it moved below the level in August 2015.

AUDUSD_TV_Daily_07032016

> Resistance Areas: 0.76
> Support Areas: 0.706, 0.695, 0.69, 0.725 & 0.74

Reviewing NinjaTrader, we can see that Order Flow has recently turned bullish, Psych Momentum is also bullish having spiked above its mid point. OBV LinReg is above its 0 line and OBV has moved up along with price.

AUDUSD_NT_Daily_07032016

Next resistance level in sight would be 0.76, but I will be looking for any re-test of 0.74 or possible 0.725 to get long.

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NZDUSD

Like the Aussie Dollar, the Kiwi has had an explosive week to the upside. Monday saw price gap down and open below the rising trend line, however price was situated on the 0.65 support zone which had been keeping price contained, and by the end of the day price had created a doji indecision bar, right on that support level. From here the rest of the week saw nothing but bullish closes, finally breaking out of the 0.674-0.669 level (high of range) on Friday with a strong close above it.

NZDUSD_TV_Daily_07032016

> Resistance Areas: 0.689
> Support Areas: 0.674-0.669, 0.65-0.645 & 0.624

Reviewing NinjaTrader, Order Flow has started to print bullish, Psych Momentum has turned bullish, with OBV LinReg above it’s 0 line. OBV itself has risen with price and has done so since the lows in mid Feb.

NZDUSD_NT_Daily_07032016

Will likely see price go and re-test the resistance level of 0.689, but will be on the look out for any re-test back into the resistance turned support level of 0.674-0.669.

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Disclaimer
Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.  
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