Weekly Analysis (21/02/2016)

Posted on Posted in Weekly Analysis

Hi Guys,

This weeks post covers my view on Cable, EUR,Swissie, Aussie & Kiwi.

Any questions, get in contact with me at  enigmaforex@hotmail.com or @Enigma_FX

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GBPUSD

This week we saw the cable break the short term upwards trend line. After several bounces last week off 1.455, leaving long upper wicks, Monday saw price break down through the trend line. Tuesday saw some re-trace of price and tested the broken trend line, however bears seemed in control as price shot downwards, breaking the key 1.44 level. The last few days price action saw some retracement back up to 1.44, with Fridays bar closing pretty much on this level.

GBPUSD_TV_Daily_21022016

> Resistance Areas: 1.48, 1.46 & 1.44
> Support Areas: 1.400 & 1.366

Reviewing the Cable on NinjaTrader, Order Flow has continued to print bearish, along with Psych Momentum. OBV LinReg is still below it’s 0 line although ticked higher and OBV itself hasn’t moved downwards slightly.

GBPUSD_NT_Daily_21022016

As we had seen a strong push and break of 1.44, we are currently testing this level again, so I am expecting some further downwards movement. Possibly targeting the lows of the year at 1.41 area.

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EURUSD

The EUR had only one day where is closed bullish. Monday saw a continued drop off from the recent bounce off the underside of a trend line, something I mentioned in my last post. Since then price has moved down back into the 1.11 support zone, with Friday’s bar closing bullish. Interestingly Thursday and Fridays candlesticks both had long wicks off the 1.11 level, indicating that there are some buyers in the market at this point.

EURUSD_TV_Daily_21022016

> Resistance Areas: 1.146
> Support Areas: 1.052 1.08, 1.10 & 1.11

On NinjaTrader Order Flow has finally printed, in the form of a bullish signal, however since printing, price has dropped. Psych Momentum is still bullish, however hasn’t posted any more highs as price continued up, and now is drifting sideways. OBV LinReg has popped above it’s 0 line, but has slowly been moving back down towards it. This is in line with OBV itself, which has posted strong moves down.

EURUSD_NT_Daily_21022016

Now price has dropped back down off 1.135 and the underside of a trend line, I will be looking for shorting opportunities, especially if we close below 1.11 and we get some bearish momentum.

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USDCHF

I only seem to review this pair when I’m in Switzerland. I don’t trade it and it shows as I look back at my weekly posts, I haven’t reviewed the Swissie since 23rd November.

When I was looking at that past analysis I saw how price reacted to previously drawn S&R lines and trend lines. At the end of January / 1st Feb price bounced back up against the 1.022, which was the level that price dropped over 1,800 pips when Switzerland dropped their peg. This has continued to be a key level where price has reacted from again bouncing slightly off the level mid November 2015.

Another support line which I drew and price reacted from is the 1.01 area. After the peg was dropped and price plummeted, it slowly grinded higher to inly be rejected in March 2015 at the 1.01 level. Again price reacted at this level several times at the start of 2016.

The next point is the recent bounced off the underside of a upwards trend line. Having pushed hard through the level at the start of Feb, price has moved back up to the trend line. Here price created a bearish doji bar off the level, as well as the 50 EMA, as of Friday 19th Feb we saw price push lower.

USDCHF_TV_Daily_21022016

> Resistance Areas: 1.022 & 1.01
> Support Areas: 0.98, 0.965, 0.95 & 0.91

Reviewing NinjaTrader, Order Flow isn’t printing any signal, although printed bearish before price moved back up to the underside of the trend line. Psych Momentum has been slowly moving lower. OBV LinReg has just crossed its 0 line, although OBV itself has risen sharply since the move higher from 0.966 level.

USDCHF_NT_Daily_21022016

Since the strong rejection off 1.022 and break of the upwards trend line combined with a re-test and rejection off the same level, I am expecting some further movement downwards.

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AUDUSD

The Aussie has had another week of slowly grinding higher, being kept above this short term upwards trend line and 0.706 support level. What can be noted this week is that Friday’s candlestick created a large tailed pin bar off the trend line and 0.706 area, although it closed bearish. Since mid January, price has been moving upwards, although there has been some attempts to move back lower, all these moves have been rejected and price has continued up.

AUDUSD_TV_Daily_21022016
> Resistance Areas: 0.740 & 0.725
> Support Areas: 0.706, 0.701, 0.695 & 0.69

Reviewing NinjaTrader, we can see that Order Flow is still bearish, along with Psych Momentum which has just tested its midpoint. Similarly OBV LinReg is also testing its mid point having moved upwards over the past week. OBV this week has moved sideways, although is still up in the long term.

AUDUSD_NT_Daily_21022016

Price seems to be wanting to continue higher, but with some resistance areas coming up and the underside of a downwards trend line, there could be good opportunities to get on moves to the downside.

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NZDUSD

The Kiwi had an interesting week in the fact that it closed the week only slightly higher than it opened. Price action tried to make a break below the 0.658 level but was unable to hold below it, being pushed once again back above this area. Friday’s bar was a good example of this where price went to test the level but was rejected and closed with a large wicked pin bar.

NZDUSD_TV_Daily_21022016

> Resistance Areas: 0.67-0.674 & 0.689
> Support Areas: 0.65-0.645, 0.624 & 0.658

Reviewing NinjaTrader, Order Flow is still posting a bearish signal with Psych momentum currently below it’ mid point. Similarly OBV LinReg is below it’s 0 line although has moved slightly higher. OBV has been rising, maybe signaling that there is some more movement to the up side to be expected

NZDUSD_NT_Daily_21022016

With price being rejected from 0.658, we could see price move up back to test the 0.67-6.74 area before we see another move down. If that happens I will be looking for short entries, but will also keep an eye out for any strong close below 0.658.

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Disclaimer
Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.  
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