Weekly Analysis

Weekly Analysis (14/02/2016)

Hi Guys,

This weeks post covers my view on Cable, EUR, Aussie & Kiwi.

Any questions, get in contact with me at  enigmaforex@hotmail.com or @Enigma_FX


The past week for the Cable has been slightly subdued, no large or dramatic moves seen, with price closing just above its Monday open, creating an indecision bar on the weekly. Price tested the key 1.44 level a number of times (Monday, Tuesday & Thursday) but failed to close below it, suggesting that there are buyers in the market wanting to keep price above this area. Similarly price never made a close above the 1.46 level, which has kept price within a small range. We are still up from yearly lows at 1.41, and have been grinding slowly upward, on the 4hr we have a nice trend movement up with price line move up.


Because price has hit up against 1.46 and moved back down to 1.44, price now seems to be making a squeeze. In which case we could see a break further up if we break the short term trend line and the 1.46 level.


> Resistance Areas: 1.48 & 1.46
> Support Areas: 1.44, 1.4000 & 1.366

Reviewing the Cable on NinjaTrader, Order Flow has continued to print bearish, along with Psych Momentum which is still printing bearish as well. OBV LinReg is still below it’s 0 line and OBV itself hasn’t moved much in any direction.


The overall trend direction is still bearish, similar to last week, will wait for any close below the 1.44 key level before re-jumping on any shorts, but will keep an eye out for any break higher possible out of the small price squeeze in process.


After a short breathing period around the 1.12 area, the EUR continued its journey upwards this week. Price managed to reach the underside of an upwards trend line created from the low of 2015, something I mentioned that may be a resistance zone for price. We saw on Tuesday that price did in fact touch this trend line, and bounce back off it, with Wednesdays price moving all the way down to the weeks opening price but then pushed all the way back up creating a large wicked pin bar. On Thursday price pushed upwards to test the line again, and again it was rejected, creating bearish movement on Friday.


> Resistance Areas: 1.146
> Support Areas: 1.052 1.08, 1.10 & 1.11

On NinjaTrader Order Flow has still yet to print any bullish signal, despite the steep rise in price. Psych Momentum however is bullish, having been moving up since the December 2015. Although OBV LinReg has been slowly moving upwards as well and is just testing its 0 line. OBV itself has moved up with price.


Price seems to be continuing up with some momentum with 1.146 key level looming, especially if we break this trend line. In which case I will be looking for some bounce off the 1.146 level.


The previous Friday’s candlestick saw price drop from the 0.725 level, creating a large wicked pin bar on the weekly. Since then the Aussie has seen a lot of movement, but in terms of daily opens and closes it hasn’t moved a great deal. On Monday Tuesday price moved down below 0.705 before closing back up above it, similarly Thursdays bar dropped below the level and closed back above it, both bars created long tailed wicks. Even Wednesday’s bar tested this level as well. There seems to be a bit of indecision in the market, if we look on the weekly, it has a large wick below its body but also a large wick above.


> Resistance Areas: 0.740 & 0.725
> Support Areas: 0.706, 0.701, 0.695 & 0.69

Reviewing NinjaTrader, we can see that Order Flow is still bearish, along with Psych Momentum. Similarly OBV LinReg is also below it’s 0 line. OBV this week has continued to move up with price.


Since hitting lows in 2016 at 0.682 price has been moving slowly up, but hitting 0.725 resistance has rebounded strongly. The 0.706 level seems to be defended strongly, so unless we get a decent break below this level we could see price move back up to test the 0.725.


The previous week saw the Kiwi hit up against the resistance zone of 0.67-0.674 and strongly rejected it on the Friday. The same has happened this week, where price slowly moved upwards again after bouncing off 0.658 and entered the resistance zone on Thursday, Friday’s price action saw a strong rejection moving back down towards 0.658. In fact if you look at the previous Friday’s bar (5/02/2016) to last Friday’s bar, they are pretty much identical in the amount they moved and closed.


> Resistance Areas: 0.67-0.674 & 0.689
> Support Areas: 0.65-0.645, 0.624 & 0.658

Reviewing NinjaTrader, Order Flow is still posting a bearish signal with Psych momentum currently testing it’ mid point. Similarly OBV LinReg is way below it’s 0 line. OBV has been reflecting price and has moved upwards, will have to be weary of this before thinking of any shorts.


The 0.67-0.674 zone seems to be putting up a good resistance to price, showing some strong rejections. If price does manage to close above, this opens up for some longs up towards 0.689. However with a break of the 0.658 level and the long term downward trend line could open up movement to 2016 lows.

Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.