Weekly Analysis

Weekly Analysis *Late Post* (01/02/2016

Hi Guys,

This weeks post covers my view on Cable, EUR, Aussie & Kiwi.

Any questions, get in contact with me at  enigmaforex@hotmail.com or @Enigma_FX

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The Cable has seen a week of a fair bit of indecision. If we look at the daily closes, it’s bearish, bullish, bearish, bullish and then bearish on Friday. We seem to be stuck with the range of 1.44 and 1.42, with no closures outside of these levels. If you look at the weekly view it has printed an indecision candle with a bearish sentiment.

On the four hour chart a rising wedge pattern has emerged from the lows of 1.408 of this month. On Friday price broke down and out of this pattern back down towards the lows, however bounced off 1.415 and retraced slightly. Ending the week at 1.424.


On the daily chart Friday’s candlestick formed an engulfing candle, however has long wicks either side, suggesting that there is still some indecision in the market.


> Resistance Areas: 1.48, 1.46 & 1.44
> Support Areas: 1.4000 & 1.366

Reviewing the Cable on NinjaTrader, Order Flow has continued to print bearish, along with Psych Momentum, although has retraced upwards slightly. OBV LinReg is still below it’s 0 line and OBV itself has moved ever so slightly up and towards the end of the week has stayed relatively flat, mirroring the indecision in the market.


I mentioned last week that price might test the 1.44 level from the previous weeks bullish pin bar from the low, although it took slightly longer for price to reach this level as the market slowly grinded higher in its range.

I want to see a retest back up to the broken rising wedge and the 1.43 level before moving further down towards the 1.40 area. Although if price managed to break and close above the key 1.44 level, this would leave a window open for it to retrace back up to 1.46.


After breaking down below the key 1.08 level at the end of the previous week, the EUR had a fairly strong week as it rose every day until Friday, having reached the top of the long term range at 1.095 / 1.10 on Thursday, the close of the week saw price plummet straight back down towards 1.08, and bounced pretty much on the dot off 1.08 to retrace slightly.

At the time of writing (Monday – 01/02/2016) price has again moved away from the 1.08 level, keeping price within the long term range.


> Resistance Areas: 1.95, 1.10, 1.11 & 1.146
> Support Areas: 1.08, 1.052 & 1.046

On NinjaTrader Order Flow has still not re-printed any bullish or bearish direction, reflecting the range and indecision in the market at the moment. Psych Momentum however is bullish and continued to move higher along with price this week. OBV LinReg is still just below its mid point. OBV although in a long term downwards trend posted higher as price printed higher, it is now just testing the trend line.


There still seems to be some indecision in this pair, with 1.08 hard to crack and equally the 1.95 level acting as some strong resistance. I am on the sidelines with the EUR at the moment and will review further when it is out its current range.


The past week the Aussie broke through the resistance zones of 0.701 and 0.76, it finished the week on a bearish doji pin bar, however at the time of writing (Monday – 01/02/2016) the pair retraced slightly into the 0.76 resistance now turned support zone and retraced back up finishing the day higher.

It is approaching the underside of the upwards trend line that held price in the long term wedge pattern, finally breaking out at the beginning of the year. Will most likely see some sort of bounce off this area if price continues upwards.


> Resistance Areas: 0.740 & 0.725
> Support Areas: 0.706, 0.701, 0.695 & 0.69

Reviewing NinjaTrader, we can see that Order Flow is still bearish, along with Psych Momentum. Similarly OBV LinReg is also below it’s 0 line. OBV this week moved up slightly in line with price.


Considering where price has gone I am expecting it to continue its journey higher, at least up to the underside of the trend line, before making a move down, especially considering OF and Psych Momentum is bearish.


The Kiwi this week has continued to range within the 0.645 / 0.65 area. Friday did end in a bearish doji bar (similar to the Aussie) off the top of the range, however at the time of writing (Monday – 01/02/2016) price moved down slightly before ending the day higher towards the top of the range.

If we see a break to the up side, the resistance level of 0.658 may provide enough resistance for a bounce, however the 0.669 / 0.674 resistance zone will likely provide a better resistance to price.


> Resistance Areas: 0.658, 0.674 & 0.689
> Support Areas: 0.65-0.645 & 0.624

Reviewing NinjaTrader, Order Flow has posted a bearish signal with Psych momentum currently below it’ mid point. Similarly OBV LinReg is below it’s 0 line, with OBV itself reflecting price and has been ranging, with no clear direction.


I will be monitoring the range and looking for a strong break out before taking any decisive decision on direction.

Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.