Weekly Analysis

Weekly Analysis (6/12/2015)

Hi Guys, weekly blog post below covering my view on Cable, EUR, Aussie & Kiwi.

Any questions, get in contact with me at  enigmaforex@hotmail.com or @Enigma_FX


In my previous post I said I was still bearish biased and was looking for a strong close below the key psychological level of 1.50. On Wednesday we saw this break of the 1.50 level and closed convincingly below it.

The previous weeks close was hovering just above the 1.502 level, with Mondays candlestick break the level but being unable to close below it, posting a small bullish pin bar in the process. Tuesday saw another small push higher, however price was rejected off the 1.51 area, and on Wednesday we saw a significant drop and then close below that 1.50 level.

Thursday’s price action was interesting, as Mario Draghi’s ECB speech sent the EUR higher with other USD pairs being affected as well when the Dollar Index took a tumble. This moved the Cable over 200 pips back towards the 1.51 area. However after Friday’s NFP results some ground was re-gained, albeit a small dent in the previous day’s moves.


Reviewing NinjaTrader, Order Flow is still brearish, along with Psych Momentum. OBV LinReg is still below its 0 line, and OBV itself has been fairly quiet but still down.


Since we are stuck below the 1.51 level and the downwards trend line, we are still looking at the slow grinding lower of this pair.


After the previous weeks slow grind down, the EUR saw some dramatic action this week. On Thursday, Draghi’s ECB speech sent the pair rocketing higher. Thursdays candlestick represented a > 450 pip move in one day, basically taking out the whole month of November’s moves lower. It also ended the nice little downtrend that a had been going on underneath a downwards trend line.

Price ended up just below the 1.10 level and on Friday fell lower after NFP results.


Look at NinjaTrader, Order Flow promptly stopped printing its bearish tone on Thursday, however has yet to print a bullish sentiment. Psych Momentum is still bearish, although it has spiked higher. OBV and OBV LinReg are still down.


Being below the 1.10 area, I still have a bearish sentiment, but will be looking for strong signals to get short.


In my previous weekly blog that as long as we are below 0.725 and 0.738 levels I would still have a more bearish sentiment. This weeks price action broke though the 0.725 level and then continued up to touch the 0.738 area.

It should be noted that Fridays close resulted in a large bearish engulfing indecision candlestick at the 0.738 level and a short term trend line. Adding good confluence to a possible bearish movement.

The pair seems to be tightening up in a large wedge formation from this years lows, if it can stay within its boundaries this coming week. However now we are above the 0.725 level, this could provide some good support to any move back down into this area.


Look at Ninja Trader, although price has risen, Order Flow has stopped printing bearish. Psych momentum is bullish, however OBV LinReg has crossed below its 0 line and OBV is still looking fairly flat.


We will see what price does this week, but I’m in favor for a short term bearish movement.


I mentioned last week that this pair looked like it was creating some short term sideways movement, but on the Tuesday price not only broke out above the resistance but also closed above the short term downwards trend line that had been containing price for the last month or so. 4 out of the 5 days this week it posted bullish candles, finally closing almost spot on at the 0.674 level.

If we to see more bullish movement then there are two key areas which may provide some resistance. The first being the highs of October at 0.686 and 0.690 area and as well as a long term downwards trend line starting from 2014 highs. I feel if we break this trend line to the up side then this will open it up for continued movement upwards.


Similarly to the Aussie, Order Flow has stopped printing bullish on NinjaTrader, and hasn’t done since the low of November. Psych momentum is bullish and still on its upwards climb. Interestingly price has climbed but OBV hasn’t posted significant highs itself and OBV LinReg has crossed below it’s 0 line. Potentially signaling lack of volume into the upward move??


I feel that if we are below the highs of October and below the long term trend line then I still have a bearish sentiment, only if either of these areas are broken will I be bullish biased.

Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.