Weekly Analysis

Weekly Analysis (29/11/2015)

Hi Guys, weekly blog post below covering my view on Cable, EUR, Aussie & the Kiwi.

Any questions, get in contact with me at  enigmaforex@hotmail.com or @Enigma_FX

———————–

GBPUSD

After bouncing off the 50 EMA and downward trend line the previous week, price has continued it’s way south for the majority of this past week. I mentioned that the next area of short term support was down at 1.51, and we can see that this is the level at which price consolidated for three days before continuing down.

We are now at the next bearish target level of 1.50, with Friday’s candlestick pretty much closing on that level. If this breaks in the coming week then we have a key support level not far below at 1.496, this has been good support and resistance in the past and is also at a supporting downward trend line from the lower lows of the current price pattern. This likely to stall the bears for a bit with some retracement, but still with a bearish bias, I am looking for this level to break. And if it does it kind of leaves it open for movement down to the lows of this year at 1.46.

Over the past few months the pound has slowly been grinding its way lower but seems to be tightening up (blue shaded area on chart), this could be a good one to watch over the next few weeks for break outs and retracements to take advantage of.

GBPUSD_TV_Daily

Looking at NinjaTrader, a bearish bias is still preferred with Order Flow still printing bearish, Psych momentum although testing its 0 line is bearish, OBV LinReg is also below it’s 0 line, but as noted last week it has been grinding slightly higher recently. OBV presents an interesting analysis this week, the new low on the 6th November printed a new low on OBV as well. Price is again back down at this level, but OBV is not. OBV has posted a higher volume, although only slightly. This could possibly be another indication that price is tightening up, but if price can’t break through the low immediately then we could see a push higher.

GBPUSD_NT_Daily

Although still bearish, I will be looking for a strong close below 1.50 or get short from any retracement hitting resistance above.

———————–

EURUSD

This pair is still being held underneath the short term downward trend line, and in fact Wednesday’s bar hit up against it before retracing. Having closed below the low of the previous week, we are getting ever closer to the 2015 lows posted back in March.

Wednesday’s candlestick produced a bearish engulfing bar of Monday and Tuesday’s bars, and after Thursday and Friday’s moves lower has encompassed them as well in an inside bar pattern. It’s interesting to note that apart from Wednesday’s large movement in price, the other candlesticks haven’t moved much when comparing them to the size of candlesticks over the last few weeks, which have seen a larger range of price movement. It seems there is some indecision in the market at the moment.

EURUSD_TV_Daily

On NinjaTrader, Order Flow had continued to print bearish after a long absence of no signal. Psych has continued to move down and OBV LinReg has finally crossed it’s 0 line. OBV itself has been tightening up and has stayed above horizontal level even when price has been printing lower. This will be something to keep an eye on as we reach the lows of this year.

EURUSD_NT_Daily

I feel that when we start bouncing off the lows of this year, we will see the short term downward trend line break as I’m sure there will be a lot of activity at these levels. But for now I still maintain a bearish bias.

———————–

AUDUSD

Having ended up against the 0.725 level at the end of the previous week, Monday’s opening saw a reversal away from this area. However we soon moved back up to the 0.725, pushed through it but price wasn’t able post a strong close above it, with Wednesday’s candlestick ended printing a doji candlestick. Subsequently Thursday and Friday’s price drop back from this level, indicating that the 0.725 level is a tough area to crack.

However we are still above the downward trend line that was broken in the previous week, and although price has moved down, it could be a good area for buyers to come in and push price higher.

AUDUSD_TV_Daily

In NinjaTrader Order Flow has continued to print a bullish signal. With Psych momentum still on it’s slow grinding up trend. OBV LinReg although is still above it’s 0 line, it continued to fall this week. This can be reflected in OBV which has been very stagnant recently in a short range, currently hitting an upward trend line.

AUDUSD_NT_Daily

We could be seeing more bullish movement, but if we are still below the 0.725 level, any bullish movement will be small. Even if we manage to push through that 0.725 level then we still have a good resistance area above around the 0.738/74 area.

———————–

NZDUSD

At the end of the previous week, we saw a bearish pin bar of the 50 EMA and short term resistance. This saw Monday’s opening candle jump south back into the 0.65, another short term support level. Since Monday price once again pushed higher to test the 0.658 area, and once again got rejected with Thursday printing another (albeit smaller) bearish pin bar with price subsequently moving away from this area.

This could be the start of a ranging market between 0.65 and 0.66. We are still below the short term downward trend line that has kept price under it since a high in mid October. And this could also play the part of resistance if the market continues to range towards this area.

NZDUSD_TV_Daily

Looking at NinjaTrader, the Order Flow Trader stopped printing it’s bullish signal on the 17th October. Psych momentum is still bullish and has been continuing it’s upwards movement, however has dropped slightly since the October highs. OBV LinReg has now moved below it’s 0 line. Looking at OBV, it has been following the downward movement of price.

NZDUSD_NT_Daily

I feel like this pair will start to produce more bearish movement over the next few weeks, once it has broken out of it’s current short range. And 0.645 will then be the next support area.

———————–
Disclaimer
Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.  
———————–