Weekly Analysis (22/11/2015)

Posted on Posted in Weekly Analysis

Hi Guys, weekly blog post below covering my view on Cable, EUR, Aussie, Kiwi and the Swissy.

Any questions, get in contact with me at  enigmaforex@hotmail.com or @Enigma_FX

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GBPUSD

After hitting resistance at 1.524, price created a doji indecision bar. At the beginning of this week price fell slightly from this level. But after a bullish pin bar on Tuesday, price rose higher.

Thursday saw this weeks high managing to get through 1.53 level but not being able to close above it. This level seems to have a bit of resistance to it, as price bounced off the 50 EMA and the downwards trend line that has kept price more or less below it. In my last blog I mentioned we could have seen a retracement up to this area. Price sharply rejected this area on Friday and dropped over 100 pips to close the week lower than it started.

GBPUSD_TV_Daily

As also previously pointed out, the chart pattern on the Cable still seems to be continuing to print the Lower Highs and Lower Lows, albeit not the cleanest at times, its still a pattern worth noting.

GBPUSD_TV_LL and LH Price Pattern

Reviewing the Cable on Ninjatrader, Order Flow has been bearish for some time, this stopped printing on Thursday, however it has yet to print any bullish signal. Similarly the Psych momentum has turned bullish. What’s interesting to note here is previously when Psych turned bullish it was at the same time as bearish order flow stopped printing back on the 29th October. OBV LinReg is still below it’s 0 mark although has been rising slightly. OBV itself has risen slightly with price, but is still in a long term down trend.

GBPUSD_NT_Daily

1.51 is the next bearish target and then 1.502. If price was to rise the key resistance of 1.55 is going to be one to watch out for. Until price closes above the 1.53 level and above the downward trend line, I still have a bearish outlook.

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EURUSD

After hitting resistance up at 1.08 last week price fell until it found some support at 0.061 on the Wednesday. Although Thursday saw price rise, on Friday it gave back those gains and closed just above the support level.

EURUSD_TV_daily

Looking at the 4 hour chart we have a nice downward channel which has been kept underneath the 50 EMA.

EURUSD_TV_4hr channel

Reviewing NinjaTrader Order Flow printed for the first time since mid October. This time it has printed a bearish signal. Psych however has been bearish since mid October. OBV LinReg is just testing the 0 line and OBV has been declining since the high in mid October. It is important to note that when price made a new low on the 28th October, OBV follwed suit and printed lower. Since then however price has continued to make new lows, but OBV has yet to print below the OBV low on the 28th. This is indicating the downward movement may not have the volume to push price further down, so this will be something to keep an eye on.

EURUSD_NT_daily

Since price is under the 1.08 handle I still have a bearish sentiment.

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AUDUSD

The Aussie has seen more bullish movement this week. Having consolidated from Monday to Wednesday price shot up dramatically on Thursday and Friday, break through the short term downward trend line that has kept price underneath it for the past few weeks. We should note that price bounced off the 0.725 resistance level on Friday which has been a key level over the past few months.

AUDUSD_TV_Daily

Looking on NinjaTrader Order Flow has been printing bullish with Psych now back bullish after a brief session below. Psych has been pushing higher since price hit a low this year, which will be something to keep an eye on. OBV LinReg is above it’s 0 line, however OBV has been sideways for the past few weeks with very little movement.

AUDUSD_NT_Daily

At the moment we seem to have more of a bullish sentiment in the market.

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NZDUSD

At the beginning of the week the Kiwi dropped however found some support on the 0.645 level, producing a bullish pin bar in the process. Subsequently price shot up on Thursday. Although on Friday price continued higher but failed to stay high, and ended on a bearish pin bar. Interestingly this was off the 50 EMA.

We are still below the short term downward trend line that has formed since the high in mid October.

NZDUSD_TV_Daily

Looking at NinjaTrader, Order Flow has been printing bullish since the beginning of October, however has stopped since the start of the week. Psych momentum is however still printing bullish and has been in an upward trend since the lows of this year. OBV Lin Reg has just started turning below its 0 line, and OBV has been following price own since the high in mid October.

NZDUSD_NT_Daily

I will be looking for a more solid confirmation of any bearish movement, primarily by the Order Flow indicator and a break and close below the 0.645 level. If we do manage to break through the 0.645 level, there isn’t much in the way of support until the lows of this year at 0.624 area.

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USDCHF

I don’t generally look at this pair, but as I am in Switzerland this weekend, I thought it would be appropriate to take a look at the Swissy.

Since mid October the pair has shot through downward trend line and continued up in a fairly steep fashion. Interestingly this pair is now at the same level it was before it dramatically fell at the start of the year when the Swiss dropped it’s cap on the currency. And price did retrace slightly after hitting the level.

USDCHF_TV_Daily

On NinjaTrader, Order Flow has been primarily bullish over the past few months. Psych is bullish and has been since mid October, OBV LinReg is above it’s 0 line and OBV itself has been on the rise along with price.

USDCHF_NT_Daily

This seems to be a strongly trending pair now, so I’m expecting it to continue, possibly with some retrace down to 1.005/6 area. If price does move lower, then it will be a good opportunity to get in for a long opportunity.

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Disclaimer
Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.  
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