Hi Guys, new weekly blog post below covering my view on Cable, EUR, Aussie & Kiwi.
Any questions, get in contact with me at firstname.lastname@example.org or @Enigma_FX
After the previous weeks huge drop in the pound (360 pips in two days), Friday’s close seemed to find a bottom, as this weeks price action saw the pound move higher every day.
I said in my post last week that I was expecting some sort of retracement, at least to 1.51 and possibly to 1.516. Which is did, but it shot past these levels on Wednesday after a seven year low of unemployment in the UK.
The week finished hitting the short term resistance level of 1.536 and created an indecision bar (doji candlestick), closing pretty much where it opened.
We are close to the downward trend line that has kept price bearish, albeit a short breach at the start of November.
Looking on NinjaTrader, Order Flow Trader is still printing bearish, the Psych momentum is down after a brief pop above the 0 line. OBV LinReg is still below it’s 0 line and has been since June this year, although has risen slightly. OBV itself has been on a downward trend since price reached the high for 2015 in June.
Overall I’m still bearish, with initial targets of 1.496 area and further eyeing up the lows of this year.
Similar to the Cable, I mentioned that I was expecting a short retracement this week up to 1.08 area. The beginning of the week saw a small congestion with price not being able to close below 1.07. On Thursday price broke to the up side and reached the 1.08 area, and on Friday reversed slightly from this level.
On NinjaTrader, Order Flow has yet to print any signal since mid October when it stopped printing bullish after the strong reversal off the 1.145 area. Psych momentum has been bearish for the past few weeks, in line with price movement, but OBV LinReg has yet to move below its 0 line, however has been moving lower. OBV although short term is down, in the long term is still above a rising trend line, looking to test a breach of it.
I am already short this pair, so will be looking for further downside in the coming week.
The Aussie has been continuing its story of downward movement after reaching a high in October. Price has also been kept under a nice short term downward trend line as well.
The week started with a short consolidation, similar to the EUR not being able to close below the previous Friday’s low. Thursday saw price move up towards the trend line and Friday’s bar moved higher but retraced after hitting the trend line and ended the day as a bearish looking doji.
On NinjaTrader, Order Flow had been printing a bullish signal for the last few weeks, however has now stopped printing. There has yet to be a bearish signal, but Psych momentum has turned bearish. OBV LinReg, although above it’s 0 line has been moving lower. OBV itself seems to be in a small range even with price making lower lows.
I am starting to be more bearish at this stage with Order Flow not printing, Psych down and with price action signaling bearish direction.
The Kiwi hasn’t seen a lot of movement this week, being stuck within a small range. Price failed to move and close below the previous Friday’s low of 0.649. An inside bar price pattern was created inside Thursdays price movement, continuing the story of consolidating price. I’m going to look for a solid break and close below the low of Thursday’s bar, which also is the 0.649 level which has contained price above before considering getting short. Because price has been contained above this level for a whole week a break to the upside towards the downwards trend line may occur first before we start targeting the lows of this year.
Order Flow on NinjaTrader seems to be telling a slightly different story, as it is still printing a bullish signal. Psych and OBV LinReg are still bullish with OBV following price by grinding lower.
So I will be looking for a break of the 0.649 level with a confluence of Order Flow and momentum before getting short.
Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.