Weekly Analysis (08/11/2015)

Posted on Posted in Weekly Analysis

Hi Guys, weekly blog post below covering my view on Cable, EUR, Aussie and Kiwi

Any questions, get in contact with me at  enigmaforex@hotmail.com or @Enigma_FX

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GBPUSD

The Cable ended it’s week by dropping dramatically. Thursday and Friday’s candlesticks both posted large drops in price. We ended the week finally closing below the 1.51 level.

Mondays trading day saw price move towards the key resistance level of 1.550 and produced a large bodied bearish pin bar, and price subsequently continued lower.

Having seen such a drop, I am anticipating some sort of retrace, levels of 1.51 and potentially 1.516 area where we previously saw some consolidated price action. Below 1.4967 area, there aren’t many significant support areas until we start reaching the lows of this year the 1.46/47 area.

GBPUSD_TV_Market Structure

Looking at NinjaTrader, OBV is still moving downwards. OBV LinReg although still below it’s 0 line, has been rising slightly and Psych momentum has turned bearish again after a brief time above the 0 line. Order Flow although has again stopped printing bearish has yet to print a bullish signal.
Therefore my bearish sentiment is still in place and I will look to go short on any retracements into key levels.

GBPUSD_NT_Market Structure

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EURUSD

Similar to the Cable, the Euro has had a week of plummeting prices. Having bounced off the underside of a long term upwards trend line,  price continued down and broke and closed below the 1.08 level. This has opened up movement towards yearly lows at 1.045.

Like the GBPUSD I would like to see a retracement back into the 1.08 zone to go short.

EURUSD_TV_Market Structure

On NinjaTrader, Order Flow printed bearish on Tuesday, with Psych momentum already below it’s 0 line. OBV LinReg dropped below it’s 0 line on Tuesday as well, and OBV broke through an upwards trend line.

I am bearish biased on this pair and would look for a good entry to join the downward movement.

EURUSD_NT_Market Structure

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AUDUSD

This pair has had an interesting two months. Price reached a high around 0.737 and has been slowly grinding down, creating a downwards trend line in the process. Tuesday and Wednesday’s candlesticks saw price bounce into the key resistance level of 1.721 which saw price drop from in mid September, as well as bouncing into the short term trend line. Subsequently price moved down off this area and ended the week closing below 0.706.

AUDUSD_TV_Market Structure

Looking at NinjaTrader, Order Flow has been printing bullish, whilst price has been moving down, and after Friday’s move down has stopped printing. Psych momentum has now turned bearish, with OBV LinReg still above the 0 line, but slightly down. OBV itself has stayed fairly flat over the past few weeks.

This pair is a wait and see for me at the moment, price has moved downwards, in line with longer term trend, but has yet to post any solid bearish signals (indicator wise). I will be monitoring it this week for further clues as to where this pair will head.

AUDUSD_NT_Market Structure

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NZDUSD

This pair started on Monday with a pin bar (albeit closed bullish) off the short term trend line that had formed since price reached a high of 0.689. For the rest of the week the pair continued to drop. Friday’s bar ended up bouncing slightly off the 0.64 support level, however has dropped significantly during the day.

NZDUSD_TV_Market Structure

Reviewing NinjaTrader, Order Flow is still printing bullish, Psych momentum is up as well as OBV LinReg, however they have both dipped slightly since the start of the week. OBV has also been dropping with price since the high of 0.689.

Similarly to the Aussie Dollar, I will be waiting for a clear signal either to go long, or when indicators start showing bearish sentiment in line with the longer term downtrend.

NZDUSD_NT_Market Structure

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Disclaimer
Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.  
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