Weekly Analysis (01/11/2015)

Posted on Posted in Weekly Analysis

Hi Guys, weekly blog post below covering my view on Cable, Euro, Yen, Loonie, Aussie & Kiwi.

Any questions, get in contact with me at  enigmaforex@hotmail.com or @Enigma_FX

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GPBUSD

The Cable ended the week higher, only regaining its losses on Friday. This pair had been grinding lower since hitting the 1.55 level of resistance as well as a downwards trend line.
 
It is interesting to note that the 1.525 seemed to be a short term support level, with both Wednesday and Thursday’s bars being unable to close below it before shooting upwards. This retrace also didn’t make it below the October lows of 1.51, which has disrupted the market structure pattern of lower highs and lower lows that we have seen forming from the end of August.
 
At the time of writing (Monday 2nd November), price continued northwards and made a nice bounce off the key support / resistance level of 1.55. Producing a large bodied bearish pin bar.
 
Zooming out to the weekly chart, the pair hasn’t really posted a clear direction, anything below 1.51 will be more bearish biased whereas anything above 1.565 will look out for bullish bias. At the moment we are kind of middle ground. However the 1.55 level has provided some good resistance.
 
GBPUSD_TV_Chart
 
Looking at NinjaTrader Order Flow has again stopped printing a bearish signal, however has yet to print a bullish signal. The Psych momentum indicator is testing the 0 line from below and OBV LinReg is still below it’s 0 line, although has moved up towards this area.
The OBV itself posted a lower low formation, but price formed a higher low, causing some divergence. Theory is that volume often precedes price, therefore we could expect a push lower.

This is interesting as price has now hit the 1.55 level and it could be a good place to get in with the bearish pin bar. However will have to be cautious as Order Flow is neutral at the moment.

GBPUSD_NT_Chart

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EURUSD

The EUR has stayed under the 1.145 level since 2015, only with a brief August spike above the area, but on the weekly it has always closed below this level. With the last bounce off this level about 2 weeks ago, price has continued to fall with some dramatic movements.
 
We previously broke the 1.11 level, which has acted as good S&R previously. Last Wednesday bar moved towards this area (albeit not exactly hitting the level) and then shot south, ending up bouncing off the 1.09 level where Thursday’s bar failed to move lower. However Friday’s bar rose up and again hit the under side of the rising trend line.
 
Any movement upwards I will look to enter short from bounces off 1.11, and if the 1.09 level breaks will look to target next key area of 1.08.

EURUSD_TV_Chart

Looking at NinjaTrader everything seems to be lining up. Order Flow has now printed bearish. The Psych momentum is below its 0 line, OBV LinReg has just crossed below its line and OBV has been printed lower following price since it hit the key resistance of 1.145. It can be noted that in OBV it broke below an upward trend line that formed. This with a bounce of the rising trend line, would be a good point for any entries short.

EURUSD_NT_Chart

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JPYUSD

Having moved upwards from a pin bar at the 118 level mid-October, the pair has been consolidating again around the 120 area, which has been a key level since September, having confined a ranging market above it.
 
We haven’t yet broken out of the 121.5 level, with last week’s price action bouncing between this level and the 120 area.

USDJPY_TV_Chart
 
Looking at NinjaTrader, Order Flow is bullish, Psych has risen above it 0 line, but is currently back down testing it. OBV LinReg has popped higher above its line and OBV has risen with price making a new high, in line with price action.

A more bullish sentiment is held currently, however we will need to break above the 121.5 zone before we can have a strong bullish bias with this pair.

USDJPY_NT_Chart

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USDCAD

This pair found some support at 1.282 and over the past two weeks has climbed higher. However last week it reversed from the 1.33 area (1.327), which has been a key resistance level from end of August into September.
 
The 1.30 handle is likely to be a support level if price makes its way down that far. As long as we are below 1.33 area we would be more bearish biased, especially as last week’s high could be the start of a lower high  market pattern.

USDCAD_TV_Chart

Reviewing the indicators on NinjaTrader, the Psych momentum indicator has been moving south since the start of August however with price grinding higher, it is currently testing the 0 line and a downward trend line. The same can be said for the OBV LinReg which has also been grinding lower and is now below its 0 line. OBV itself has been posting lower highs in accordance with price.

With this in mind I’m expecting a move lower at least down to the 1.30 level and possibly to 1.282.

USDCAD_NT_Chart

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AUDUSD

Having last week said I was bullish biased on this pair, it has subsequently broken down through the key 0.72 level. There were a few bearish indicating pin bars that provided a warning of this movement, however were amongst consolidated price action and not clearly bouncing off a key level.
 
Price on Thursday and Friday last week failed to break through 0.706 level and has subsequently bounced higher. Could this possibly be the start of a higher high, higher low formation since the pairs low point in September?

AUDUSD_TV_HH & HL

Looking at NinjaTrader Order Flow has just stopped printing a bullish signal, with Psych testing its midpoint. OBV LinReg is still above its midpoint, since early October. OBV itself has been rising as well, however has made slightly lower lows in line with recent price action.

We would still have a slightly bullish sentiment, but if Order Flow starts printing bearish and we are below 0.706 then we will have a bearish bias.

AUDUSD_NT_Chart

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NZDUSD

Wednesday and Thursday’s candlesticks sharply rejected the 0.665 level, with Friday posting higher up into the short term downward trend line. This looks like a flag pattern, generally considered to be a continuation pattern once price has broken out of its upper boundary.

Looking at the weekly chart, last week produced a bullish pin bar just off key 0.66 level. 0.67 also a key area on the daily which price has had difficulty closing solidly below.
 
NZDUSD_TV_Chart
 
Looking at NinjaTrader, Order Flow is still bullish, having printed its signal early October. Psych is comfortably above the 0 line, similar to OBV LinReg, although this has turned towards the downside mid-October highs of price. OBV has been following price and has been moved higher since price double bottomed in September, and has also followed price in the short term move down from mid-October highs.

We would look for a price break of the flag / downward trend line formation to get on the bullish wagon.

NZDUSD_NT_Chart

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Disclaimer
Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.  
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