Weekly Analysis

Weekly Analysis *Late-Post* (25/10/2015)

Hi Guys, weekly blog post below covering my view on GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD & DXY.

Any questions, get in contact with me at  enigmaforex@hotmail.com or @Enigma_FX

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GBPUSD

After shooting up to the downwards trend line of the previous week, price last week held below the 1.55 resistance line and closed below the downward trend line. Price kept on creating long candle wicks as well with bounces off that area. However on Thursday, after one last run up against the level, price bounced off once more and created a big engulfing pin bar. Fridays price action saw the Cable fall c. 100 pips.

The market structure has seemed to have created that additional Lower High I was talking about last week.

We are going to be looking to break past the 1.53 level to target at least 1.52 key support, with a potential bounce back into the downward trend line. But first we will actually have to break the 1.53 area, which is also the point where a short term rising trend line has been respected, the last three candles have stalled at this area, and at the time of writing price is looking to make a bullish pin bar off the level. Could potentially see a test of the main downward trend line sooner.

GBP_TV_Trendline_Market Structure

Looking at Ninja Trader, after Order Flow indicator stopped printing bearish movement it failed to print a bullish signal. This week it has re-printed bearish again signaling the continued movement down. Pysch momentum is also crossing below the 0 level, with LinReg OBV still held below it’s 0 line. OBV has also continued its downwards path. When price hit that 1.55 area, it is interesting to note that OBV made a lower high as well and kept with the downward momentum.

GBP_NT_Daily & 4hr

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EURUSD

The Euro has made some dramatic moves this past week, having dropped c. 250 pips on Thursday. It seems the key resistance area 1.145 is still key resistance as price has been dropping ever since it hit the level mind October.

From last weeks blog, I was looking to re-join bullish movement from bounces off 1.127 area, with bullish signals, however price shot through that level and ended the week at the 1.10 level, which is in fact the bottom of a longer term rising wedge trend line.

This trend line has now been broken with a close below the level. There is a general agreement that people will look to get short with tests off this trend line as resistance to jump onto any continued movement downwards. Initial targets would be 1.09 and then further to the support level of 1.08.

EUR_TV_Drop down to rising trend line

Looking on Ninja Trader, Order Flow indicator has stopped printing bullish, however has yet to print bearish on the daily, whereas on the 4hr chart bearish signal was printed.

The daily Psych momentum has crossed below the 0 line with LinReg OBV dropping towards its middle line as well. If we look at OBV on its own, we can see it has broken through its upwards trend line at the start of the week and has followed price down.

EUR_NT_Daily & 4hr

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AUDUSD

The Aussie has started forming inside bars from Friday’s pin bar, but looking back at last weeks action, Monday and Tuesday’s candlesticks created two pin bars in a row which created the downward movement on the Wednesday. Thursdays bar printed an indecision pin bar at the 0.72 level and subsequently pushed a higher before coming back down to end the day where it started.

We are still hanging around the key support/resistance level of 0.725, however have now made several closes below it.

AUD_TV_Chart

Reviewing Order Flow on NinjaTrader, we still have a bullish signal printing. Pysch momentum is up as well as LinReg OBV. OBV itself is still following price and rising.

For now I’m remaining bullish, but would like to see a strong entry signal before getting involved.

AUD_NT_Chart

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NZDUSD

Having shot up over the past few weeks, this pair seems to have put in a correctional movement from a high of 0.69. Last week, Wednesday’s and Thursday’s candlesticks both had lows pretty much right on the line of 0.669, a level which I’ve previously marked on the chart. Friday’s bar formed a larger bodies bearish pin bar, however no movement below it’s low has been seen.

NZD_TV_Chart

Order Flow on Ninja Trader is still bullish and Psych and LinReg OBV are both above their 0 lines, and OBV itself has been following price upwards.

For now still have a bullish sentiment but will need a strong entry signal. Will also keep an eye out for any potential bearish signals forming.

NZD_NT_Chart

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DXY

Just thought I would review where the Dollar Index is at.

Having created a high of 2015 in March, the index has since declined, creating in the process a downward trend line which price hasn’t been able to close above. Last week however, after Thursdays strong bullish movement, Friday’s action moved further upwards and closed above the trend line.

Will keep eye out for any closures below, but this suggests there may be continued bullish movement.

DXY_TV_Chart

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Disclaimer
Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.  
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