Weekly Analysis

Weekly Analysis (18/10/2015)

Hi Guys, another weekly blog post below covering my view on GBP, EUR, JPY, AUD & NZD.

Any questions, get in contact with me at  enigmaforex@hotmail.com or @Enigma_FX

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GBP/USD

In my last blog post I mentioned that the end of last week could have been a new LH and a point of reversal, as we had some resistance from the 1.536 and 50 EMA. It reversed slightly and bounced pretty much on the nose of the 1.520 level. This was enough for me to move my stop to over breakeven to lock in some profit. However the next day the pair shot northwards off the back of some good UK unemployment data and took out my stop order.

After this huge move, we were up at the downwards trend line acting as resistance, as well as hitting the 1.550 level of resistance. This level acted as the bottom of a months long range from mid July to mid August.

This is similar to what we saw last month. Price hit up against the top of that monthly range and created the start of the downward trend line. Again this has now formed a better price pattern of LL’s and LH’s.

GBP_TV_Price Patterns

Looking on Ninja Trader, the first thing to notice is that the 20 period Order Flow has stopped printing its bearish signal, however no bullish OFT signal has been printed. It was only after the huge upward movement on Wednesday that the bearish direction disappeared.
The Psych momentum has also printed higher off the back of the same price movement, now testing the 0 line as well as taking out a downward trend line on the indicator.
OBV LinReg is still below the 0 line and actual OBV has gained slightly, albeit hasn’t jumped hugely considering the move on Wednesday.

GBP_NT

Price action on the Thursday printed a large bodied bearish indecision candle, followed by a bearish pin bar off the trend line on the Friday. Bias is towards bearish movement off the trend and resistant lines. If closes above this level (1.550) then we will look for action back into the top of that monthly range level and wider picture tend line at 1.565.

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EURUSD

I mentioned in the previous blog post that the EUR had broken and closed through the short term downward trend line, with OBV LingReg and OBV rising. Bullish OFT bullish signal temporarily stopped printing with no bearish signal, to then re-print a bullish signal on Tuesday.

The EUR then continued up to the 1.145 resistance level that I suggested might produce a bounce. On Wednesday it closed just above the level but on Thursday lost all its ground made and continued down on Friday.

As the current momentum bullish, I will be watching out for bounces off the 1.127 level to then join the bullish movement again. Unless there is any bearish signal printed.

EUR_TV_bounce off resistance

EUR_NT

Looking at the wider weekly picture we are still in a narrowing rising wedge pattern and again the 1.145 level is proving tough to break through. What’s interesting is that the weekly candlestick has printed quite a strong bearish pin bar off the resistance level.

EUR_TV_weekly pin bar

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USDJPY

The Yen seems to have finally broken out of that tightening symmetrical triangle with a close outside on Tuesday and then dropped further on Wednesday.

After having a bullish bias with the large pin bar printed at the start of October I was waiting for a break on the upside. However after a bearish printing on the Order Flow and OBV and Psych providing confluence I quickly hopped onto the movement and managed to book some profit from the large move on Wednesday.

Thursdays candlestick saw extended movement down, however re-gained its ground up to the close of the day, creating a pin bar, this bounced off the 118 level.

Friday saw a continuation of this bullish movement and close just at 119.4. At the moment we are just testing the 4hr 50 EMA and still printing bearish Order Flow with Psych and OBV negative as well.

I’m expecting continued bearish movement, but could see a short term movement up into that symmetrical triangle range before bouncing off again.

USDJPY_NT_4hr & Daily

USDJPY_TV

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AUDUSD

This week the Aussie had a choppy week compared to last weeks bullish run. It initially rose higher on Monday, but sharply dropped on Tuesday. I mentioned in my last post that I was looking out for retracement back into the 0.72 level after the long bullish run.

This 0.72 level has been a good support and resistance line, however on Wednesday price broke through the level, bounced off the 50 EMA and then closed above it. A bit of an indecision bar printed on Thursday which then caused a bearish movement on Friday, but again price bounced off the 0.72 level.

AUS_TV

On Ninja Trader Order Flow is still bullish, Psych and OBV LinReg above the 0 line, and actual OBV rising sharply since the start of October. So I am expecting a small test of the 0.72 level again before heading upwards, targeting 0.745.

AUS_NT

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NZDUSD

This pair continued its strong bullish movement, albeit had a small retrace on Tuesday. This Tuesday candlestick bounced off 0.662 and shot upwards.
The Kiwi ended on an inside bar just below the 0.69 level.

Short term I’m still bullish on this pair, I will be looking to join the upwards momentum if the pair reverses back down to 0.674, as Psych, Order Flow and OBV are all currently bullish.

NZD_NT

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Disclaimer
Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.  
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