Weekly Analysis (11/10/2015)

Posted on Posted in Weekly Analysis

Hi Guys, weekly blog post below covering my view on GBP, EUR, JPY, AUD and NZD.

Any questions, get in contact with me at  enigmaforex@hotmail.com or @Enigma_FX

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GBP/USD

After ending on another candle with a long wick closing below the 1.520 zone last week, price produced another candle that closed off the same zone on Monday. However price didn’t want to break the 1.51 level, and subsequently off the back of poor NFP data it shot higher on the Tuesday. Price then rose for the next three days. The pair ended up on bearish candlestick after bouncing off the 50 EMA.

Interesting to note that a new possible lower higher could have been created. With the first high being the high of 2015 in mid June and the creation of lower highs and lower lows since then.

GBPUSD_TV_LH LL formation

Although there is a bounce off the 50 EMA, we could see further upside towards the downwards trend line. This would be in the 1.550 resistance area and would look for a bounce off this level for further downside.

Looking on Ninja Trader, we still have a bearish bias through order flow. Psych momentum is still below the 0 line, although OBV LinReg is still below the 0 line as well it has up ticked slightly with this weeks movement.

GBPUSD_NT

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EURUSD

After ranging for most of the last two weeks, the Euro seems to have broken out to the upside. If we continue to move upwards there is key zone at 1.145 that has been resistance for the pair on multiple occasions. We briefly had a break out from this area towards the end of August with a larger than normal bullish candlestick, however after a close above the level we immediately came back down below it.

EURUSD_TV_Resistance Zone 1.145

On Ninja Trader, as previously mentioned last week, the Psych momentum indicator has been grinding lower whilst the OBV indicators have been continuing higher. This bearish direction on the Psych (which has now crossed below the 0 line), seems to have been backed up by the Order Flow indicator. Order Flow which previously was printing bullish sentiment has now disappeared from the last three days, possibly indicating an end to bullish direction. Although the pair is still stuck above the 1.11 level it has been making Lower Highs since that break out of the 1.145 zone. I will be looking out for bearish printing of Order Flow, a shift in direction on OBV and any bearish signal off the 1.145 level if price makes it that high.

EURUSD_NT

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USDJPY

The Yen was still contained within the symmetrical triangle pattern that has been tightening since the end of August. The pair although pushed higher after last weeks large pin bar, dropped back towards the bottom of the trend line and then bounced higher to close higher than the previous weeks close.

This pair seems to have got to the end of its tightening triangle range and I’m expecting a solid close outside of its range in the next coming days.

USDJPY_NT

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AUDUSD

The Aussie had a very strong week with 5 consecutive days pushing higher. The pair pushed through the 50 EMA resistance and ended on a convincing close above the key 0.725 level, which can now be considered support.

Now we are above the 0.725 level the next resistance zone is around 0.740. I am expecting some sort of correction movement before continuing higher if not before the 0.74 area then at the 0.74 level itself.

Since the low of 0.69, price has begun to form a price pattern of higher highs and lower highs, this could be the beginning of a correctional move upwards since the long bearish trend.

AUDUSD_TV_Bullish movement

For the first time since the beginning of May, the Order Flow indicator turned bullish. Similarly the Psych momentum and OBV LinReg have both breached the 0 line and crossed above for the first time since the start of June. I will look for any reversal into the 0.725 level to join bullish movement.

AUDUSD_NT

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NZDUSD

Similarly to the Aussie, the Kiwi has had a strong week printing multiple bullish candlesticks. The pair had continuingly pushed higher off the 0.625 area after creating a triple bottom before shooting upwards.

It has closed above the 50 EMA and went through the 0.65 level comfortably. The pair ended the week closing just below the resistance area of 0.67, which has previously held price underneath on a few occasions.

NZDUSD_TV_bullish movement

On Ninja Trader Order Flow Trader indicator has printed a bullish signal for the first time since the end of 2014. Similarly Psych momentum and OBV has both crossed above the 0 lines. The Psych indicator has bene moving upwards slowly since the start of July whilst price has continued down. OBV LinReg has also been grinding higher although OBV itself has continued to move lower, however since the third hit of price on the 0.625 level OBV has started to print higher.

I’m looking for a correctional movement back towards the 0.65 zone to get in on further movement upwards.

NZDUSD_NT

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Disclaimer
Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.  
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