Weekly Analysis (27/09/2015)

Posted on Posted in Weekly Analysis

Hi Guys, first blog post below covering my view on Euro, Cable, Loonie and Aussie. The past week has been pretty interesting with several set ups.

Any questions, get in contact with me at  enigmaforex@hotmail.com or @Enigma_FX

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GBP/USD

This pair hit a strong reversal point up at the 1.56 level. This was the level at which the market was ranging from early July to mid August, finally breaking out towards the end of August, but hit the 1.58 level and came straight back down. After testing the 1.517 zone at the start of this month, the pair rose back to the 1.56 level. This seemed important because it was a bounce off the resistance, and an old trendline. I posted on Twitter that this could be a possible reversal point with the pair and potential continuation of the down trend (beginning c. a year ago) with Lower Highs and Lower Lows from this years high point at 1.59.

GBPUSd_Daily_New LL & LH Combo

The pair has since declined rapidly and is now sitting at that key 1.517 zone. LittleFishFX Order Flow Trader indicator (LFX-OFT) is bearish, with LFX Psych indicator and On-Balance Volume gradually on a down slope since mid may.

GBPUSd_NT_Analysis_27092015

Will be looking to sell around the 1.533 if there is any re-trace. Because we have hit this key support, I will be waiting for a strong close below before looking to get onto any further downside. With initial targets of 1.50 and then further onto 1.45 which has been this years low.

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AUD/USD

The Aussie has also been in a long term down trend with the strength of the dollar. Back on the 17th and 18th of September a pretty nice set up occurred. After a low of 0.69 at the beginning of the month we had a re-trace back upwards. The pair hit the key level of 0.72 which had previously provided some brief support but it was the price action of two pin bars in consecutive days that was interesting. Not to mention we had hit the 50 EMA. In line with the trend this provided a good set up, which then dropped three days in a row.

Looking at NinjaTrader and LFX indicators. Order Flow has been bearish since the start of June, with LFX Psych and OBV staying bearish as well, with no rise above the 0 lines.

AUDUSD_NT_Analysis_27092015

Thursdays candlestick gave us a pin bar, just up from the 0.69 low, with little decisive moment on Friday. At the moment we have a bearish bias, however will need another entry signal to get short again. Will sell on any retrace up towards 0.71 level, and would like to see a close below this years low at 0.69.

AUDUSD_TV_Analysis_27092015

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EUR/USD

The Euro doesn’t seem to have a decisive direction, crossing above and below the 50 EMA. However it has slowly been grinding its way higher from yearly lows of 1.04. That zone actually seemed to be a key one, looking at a weekly chart, price bounced off the area back in 1997 and then again in 2003, with a bit of indecisiveness around the level in 1999.

EURUSD_TV_Weekly_Analysis_27092015

Since that bounce off that historical support/resistance line we have been heading higher, making higher lows. However price keeps hitting up against the key level of 1.14, with the most recent bounce on the 18th September. Apart from a seemingly false break out at the end of August, price seems to be holding underneath this zone.

EURUSD_TV_Analysis_27092015

With Order Flow bullish, along with LFX Psych and OBV (although riding just above the 0 line), this pair seems to be holding up above 1.10 (short term level). Any move upwards will look for price action and confluencing factors to get short at that key 1.14 zone. Or a move bearish will keep an eye out for a bounce off the rising trend line.

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USD/CAD

Since a low in mid-May of 1.19, the Loonie has created a strong uptrend. Staying above the 50 EMA with little significant retracement to value areas.

Recently has seen an interesting set up. On the 17th of September a bullish pin bar was formed and the following day a bigger bullish pin bar was created. Both of these bars seemed to bounce off rising trend line and the 50 EMA. As well as this the second pin bar was in fact an engulfing bar as well, which gave even more evidence that the next move would be bullish.

USDCAD_NT_Analysis_27092015

Thursday’s candlestick created a small pin bar off that 1.33 level, which was previous resistance on the 28th August. We could see a brief pull back down to the trend line again, in which case price would be starting to wind up on a tighter and tighter range.

Although LFX Order Flow is bullish, the LFX Psych has been declining, heading towards that 0 line since early August, with price going higher. The LinReg Slope of OBV is producing the same story, however OBV itself is still grinding higher, indicating positive volume pressure and the potential for continued upward prices.

For now I remain bullish on this pair, however will be watchful on the coming weeks price action and possible continued divergence between Psych (momentum indicator) and price levels.

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Disclaimer
Market commentary and trade ideas are solely my opinion and are not to be considered as trading advice. Presented in a blog format, it is intended for informative and entertainment purposes only. Please do not follow or act upon these opinions, you should undertake your own analysis and be aware of the risks involved.  

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